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Jumat, 17 Juni 2011

Greed is Good; Fear is Better

Greed is Good; Fear is Better

Many individual investors are throwing in the towel on the U.S. stock market. They’re packing their bags and going home. This departure from stocks is not a short-term hiatus, mind you. Large numbers are vowing to stay away from stocks for the rest of their lives.
For some investors, the stock market has a permanent black cloud over it. They say it’s just not worth suffering through more years of volatile price action and gut-wrenching plunges just to end up with less money than when they started. The number of people who feel this way will surprise you.
CNN Money recently reported on the results of a new Prudential Securities survey that polled more than 1,000 investors between the ages of 35 and 70. They found that 58 percent of those surveyed have lost faith in the U.S. stock market. Only 25 percent plan to invest more in stocks this year, 31 percent said they were going to wait at least another year before investing more, and 44 percent said they plan to stay out of the game permanently.
According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist with Charles Schwab & Co. in New York, “There’s a view that the market is rigged.” It would appear that way to 6 o’clock news watchers, given several high-profile insider-trading scandals and relentless finger pointing at Wall Street for America’s economic ills.
Giving up on stocks after a prolonged bear market is nothing new. Over the past 80 years, there have been three long and gut-wrenching downturns in the stocks followed by high unemployment, stale economic growth and investor dissatisfaction. These periods occurred in the 1930s, 1970s, and 2000s. Toward the end of each bad patch in U.S. economic history, a high number of individual investors give up on the stock market forever.
There’s a silver lining in every black cloud. As sentiment against Wall Street increases, so does the risk premium paid to people who stay invested. Periods of maximum pessimism have always been followed long bull markets. This time is no different.
Please continue reading Bad Sentiment is Good for Stocks on my personal blog. Data and figures included.
Selasa, 14 Juni 2011

Top 5 Tips to Build Wealth and Success

Top 5 Tips to Build Wealth and Success

Warren Buffett is worth $45 billion. That wealth isn't only a factor of savvy investing and good business — the "Oracle of Omaha" is also known as a penny pincher. Buffett still lives in the same Omaha, Neb., home he bought in 1958 for $31,500.
Follow his frugal formula, and you too may wind up with a lot more money than you ever dreamed.
This week Financially Fit covers five tips to build wealth and success.

1. Live Below Your Means.

Being wealthy isn't just a product of your salary or investment prowess; it's learning how to save.
"We can make a lot of money, you can make a little bit of money, but the second you spend all the money is when people get into trouble. Saving is the key to preserving your wealth," says Ed Butowsky, managing partner of Chapwood Capital Investment Management, a firm that manages money for wealthy individuals.
As many Americans realized during the booming real estate market, just because you think you can afford something doesn't mean you should buy it. Keeping an eye on your bottom line will pay dividends over the long term.

2. Bounce Back From Defeat

With nearly 15 million workers unemployed right now in the U.S., it's easy to get discouraged. Don't! Most successful and wealthy people have overcome obstacles and failure along the way. Steve Jobs was ousted from Apple when he was 30. Today, he's a billionaire and a legend. Plus, after getting fired, he created another billion-dollar media company, Pixar.
"Bouncing back from defeat is something all great achievers have. They have this undying belief good things will happen and will continue to happen," says Butowsky.
Take Michael Jordan. "His airness" was cut from his high school basketball team. Motivated by the rejection, Jordan became a star the next season. The rest is history.

3. Self-Promote

Regardless of the profession, the rich and successful tend to have a strong sense of self-worth — key to skillfully navigating an upward career path. Mark Hurd, who was ousted as CEO of Hewlett-Packard in August, couldn't be kept down for long. Using his business skills and connections, in September, Hurd was named president of Oracle. (Hurd and Oracle founder Larry Ellison are known to be close friends.)

4. Have Street Smarts

Bernie Madoff lived the high life for decades, scamming unsuspecting clients, with a money-making formula that proved too good to be true. Only afterward did we learn that with a little due diligence, most clients could have easily uncovered the fraud.
But it's not only the swindlers and the con men you have to watch out for. Many times, friends and family take advantage of the rich. Whether it's a handout or an investment idea, Butowsky advises his high net worth clients that in most cases, it's wisest to just say "no." The best way to do that: have someone else do it for you.
"You need to really set up a wall between you and your family," he advises. "If you don't want to give them (family or friends) money ... saying no is probably a good idea."

5. Buy Cheap

The rich can afford to splurge, but that doesn't mean they do.
John Paulson, a billionaire hedge fund manager, bought his Hamptons "dream house at a bargain basement price," according to Greg Zuckerman, author of the Paulson-based book, "The Greatest Trade Ever." The story has it that Paulson eyed the home while it was in foreclosure. Finally, on a rain-soaked day, he purchased the home on the Southampton town hall steps. He was the only bidder.
On New York City's Upper East Side, Michael's— The Consignment Shop for Women— has been a bargain-hunting destination for more than 60 years. "We have a good percentage of women who can afford to shop on Madison Avenue but really like the idea of saving that money," says proprietor Tammy Gates.

From Chanel to Gucci and Louis Vuitton, the store specializes in high-end designer merchandise for a reasonable price. Speaking of her clientele, Gates says, "they're wealthy for a reason. They recognize that bargains keep people wealthy. Paying top dollar when you don't have to doesn't make sense."

Minggu, 12 Juni 2011

Mobile Financial Services Development Report 2011

Mobile Financial Services Development Report 2011

The Mobile Financial Services Development Report 2011 provides a comprehensive analysis of over 100 variables across 20 countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia. Developed in conjunction with The Boston Consulting Group, the report measures the critical factors necessary to achieve meaningful scale of mobile financial services and to meet the needs of billions excluded from the formal economy.
The report highlights that the adoption of mobile financial services is currently confined to a few countries where access to financial services has been historically constrained and the scope of services limited to mobile money transfer. The findings also suggest that the adoption of financial services such as savings, credit and micro-insurance are nascent and that regulatory environments, market competitiveness and the financial literacy of end-users all need to be collaboratively addressed before meaningful scale can be achieved.

Countries such as Kenya and the Philippines are among the few countries covered by the report that have achieved adoption levels of more than 10% of the total adult population. A defining characteristic of these countries is a dense network of agents – retail access points that are capable of registering account holders and handling cash transactions. However, as these countries look to achieve scale in mobile financial services beyond payments, focusing on factors such as government disbursements through the mobile platform, the competitiveness of their financial and telecom sectors, and better data collection and monitoring to facilitate “test and learn” approaches will need to become a priority.
Sabtu, 11 Juni 2011

Ally Financial delaying $6 billion IPO

Ally Financial delaying $6 billion IPO

Ally Financial, an auto and mortgage lender majority owned by the U.S. government, is delaying a $6 billion IPO due to bad market conditions, two sources familiar with the situation told Reuters.
The roadshow for the initial public offering was expected to launch late this week or early next week, which would have brought the company public before the U.S. July 4 holiday.
The S&P 500 index (.SPX) closed up 0.74 percent at 1,289 on Thursday, but had lost more than 6 percent in the last six days while Nasdaq had nearly erased its gains for the year.

Ally Financial's IPO is expected to raise around $6 billion, including both common stock and convertible securities, one of the sources said. It will move ahead when the market improves, that source said.
The other source said that the IPO could now come in late July or early August, or after the September U.S. Labor Day holiday.
The sources declined to be named as the information is not public. Ally and the U.S. Treasury declined comment.

Bad mortgage loans forced the U.S. Treasury to pour $17.2 billion into Ally during the financial crisis. It has recovered some of that money through repayments and dividends and continues to hold a 73.8 percent stake in Ally, formerly known as GMAC.
The U.S. government is currently in the process of exiting other remaining financial crisis-era investments including GM and AIG.

It began exiting top U.S. automaker General Motors Co (GM.N) with a record $23.1 billion IPO last November. In May, it sold 15 percent of its stake in insurer American International Group Inc (AIG.N).
GM shares closed on Thursday at $29.45, or 10.8 percent below their $33 IPO price.
AIG's shares have also retreated since its $8.7 billion share sale. That sale raised less than the $10 billion to $20 billion some banking sources had suggested earlier in the year.

Apart from the Treasury, Ally's stockholders include private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, with a 9 percent stake, and GM, which owns 4 percent directly and 6 percent through a trust.
Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Barclays Capital and Deutsche Bank Securities are the underwriters on the IPO.
Rabu, 01 Juni 2011

Top 100 Financial Advisors 2011

Top 100 Financial Advisors 2011
Financial advisors are hardly lacking for talking points these days. There are wars, earthquakes, tsunamis and a nuclear catastrophe. The dollar is plunging and commodities are soaring. Cities and states are running out of cash, and the federal government isn't far behind. That's to say nothing of the explosion of new financial products, from exchange-traded funds to a grab-bag of alternative assets, and the rise of trading that happens in milliseconds rather than minutes.
The extraordinary combination of events isn't just setting the agenda for advisor-client meetings; it's putting advisors' skills to the test and shaking up the industry. Advisors with the know-how and tools are clearly making the most of it, as you can see on our annual listing of America's top 100 financial advisors. (To see the complete ranking click here.)

Twenty-five advisors not on last year's roster have earned spots on the new one, and some repeaters have scored huge gains. Sanjan Dhody of Deutsche Bank Alex. Brown, for instance, shot from No. 24 last year into the top 10. Robert Inbody of Morgan Stanley, No. 100 last year, has vaulted to No. 55. When the going gets cataclysmic, there's no telling how far a good advisor might go.
Our ranking is based on each advisor's assets under management, revenue generated for his or her firm, and the quality of the practice. We don't explicitly consider investment performance, in part because advisors pursue such a wide range of investment objectives. Preserving the family fortune is often more important for a customer than scoring big gains. But advisors with an impressive amount of assets under management are probably meeting the objectives -- or else clients would be leaving and new ones wouldn't be joining.
This listing differs markedly from the Top 1,000 report we published in February. That list showed the leading advisors in each state; this one identifies the leaders without regard to location. Most work at big brokerage houses, though smaller firms are also represented.
The No. 1 advisor is Gregory Vaughn of Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. Working from Menlo Park, Calif., he and his team oversee accounts totaling some $9.7 billion. These aren't just any accounts, either; the average size is $75 million. Vaughn has been finding some opportunities well off the beaten trail; he thinks the Norwegian market offers some great resources plays. Closer to home, he's buying certain types of California municipal bonds, undaunted by the state's fiscal woes.
The top advisors are focused intently on making sense of the big picture -- not only of world events but clients' entire financial positions, from cash needs to philanthropy. But some also take pride in their profession's historical backbone, stock-picking. Deutsche Bank's Bruce Treitman loves to scour for companies with strong balance sheets and histories of dividend hikes.
Like Vaughn, most advisors on our list are looking for smart, safe ways to play the tumult in municipal bonds, long a cornerstone of wealthy investors' portfolios. And, with fears of inflation mounting, the advisors are keeping a close eye on the spectacular run-up in commodities prices (see story "Time for Commodities?").
Mark Curtis, veteran advisor with Morgan Stanley, is in many ways the embodiment of the advisors who made this year's list -- a conservative practitioner with a sophisticated knowledge of how markets work and the vast panoply of investment possibilities to offer.
Curtis joined E.F. Hutton in Palo Alto in 1982. While the name of the firm on his business card has changed repeatedly to reflect Wall Street's successive mergers, he has never thought of leaving his post or even planning for his own retirement. "My father's best year in this business was the year before he died," Curtis points out. "I wanted to do this for all of my life, to follow in his footsteps and be as important to my clients as he was to his. And I want to keep doing it for the rest of my life."
He also takes a long-term view in investing. "It's a mistake to think investment themes change quickly," says Curtis. That's sound advice in a world that seems to be spinning faster with each passing day.
Bruce Treitman was always intrigued by money, but after a stint as an accountant for Coopers & Lybrand right out of college, he realized that burrowing into corporate ledgers wasn't how he wanted to spend the rest of his professional life. "My roommate at the time was a broker, and he seemed to have much more fun, so I ended up going to work at Merrill Lynch," he recalls. "Every day seemed to offer something new and exciting.
Unlike many of his peers, the 52-year-old Treitman maintains a link to those days by managing money himself, rather than turning it over to managers he selects. "Most brokers don't do that any more, but while we might use separate accounts or ETFs, the crown jewel of our group is the money we manage ourselves," he says.

Treitman seeks out companies with impressively strong balance sheets and histories of dividend growth, and then sells call options against them to enhance returns. He has also set up municipal-bond ladders, enabling him to combine the higher returns available from longer-duration securities with the certainty of having money coming due every year. He isn't rattled by the dire predictions of muni-bond bears because he seeks out the safest choices. Example: certain types of school-district bonds, especially in wealthy areas with few home foreclosures. He's so intent on ensuring these holdings stay safe that he pores over the current regulatory filings from each of the 400-plus different bonds in his clients' portfolios.
"I want to help people not blow it," Treitman says. Just as he says he will only buy a municipal bond "if I can't figure out any scenario where it will go bad." He also reminds people of the need for low volatility in other types of investments, even in runaway bull markets.
 
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